Predetermination

Imagine for a moment that robots have taken over the world. OK, I know this is kinda scary coming from someone who has declared himself "the guy who will put robotic servants in every home around the globe by 2020." But I promise it's only hypothetical. Humor me.

So robots have taken over the world. They have systematically destroyed all traces of human life, moved in to our homes, and are now going about their own robotic lives in what used to be our communities.

There is only one problem. The robots have been programmed to believe that the earth represents the entire universe. They have no concept of anything off the surface of the earth, and they do not know that there are still a handful of humans still living on board a space station orbiting overhead. It's up to these final few to defeat the robots and reclaim the planet for the human race. But how can they do it?

(OK, we assume by the time the robots take over the planet, that a space station has a handful of staff instead of 2 on the International Space Station, and working escape pods. We also assume other things that make it feasible. Humor me.)

Here is the point. The space-faring humans can rescue the planet by hacking the robots. All they need to do is (1) find a way to read the contents of each robot's central computer, (2) build a massive computer simulation of their own, and (3) extrapolate out exactly what the robots will do when. Armed with this knowledge they can plot their comeback and even test different scenarios by altering the computer simulation. Ultimately, the space station workers are successful in taking the planet back from the robots, and have a marvelous time repopulating the human race.

But is that really possible? OK, most of the story is not really possible. But the bit about creating the uber-computer-simulation is theoretically possible. "Theoretically" possible because it would be really hard to actually do, and would probably require more energy to simulate than to simply let reality play out and watch what happens. However nothing about it is impossible per se.

How do you write a computer simulation for everything that happens on the planet? I would start by breaking out indepent autonomous systems, and then finding ways to simulate interaction between them. For instance, we already have computer programs that predict weather patterns by analyzing current weather conditions and extrapolating out based on formulas that predict that sort of thing. You could call a weather pattern an independent autonomous system. Naturally, we would expect the robots' behavior to be influenced by the weather, so the weather simulation would have to be one part of the greater Equation for Calculating Everything.

Of course robots' interactions with each other will also impact their behavior, so we factor that in to the Equation too. We will create one autonomous simulation for each robot, and then merge them all together with the weather simulation. Now we can already reasonably predict where the robots will be and what they will be doing at any point in time into the future. Given the complexity of the Equation, our accuracy will likely decrease the further out in time we go.

To make it more accurate, we can incoporate a greater number of less-significant autonomous systems into the Equation. For instance, if the robots left any life on earth after they killed the humans, then that should be taken into account. Otherwise, you could have a siberian tiger come out of nowhere unexpectedly while you're battling a robot. So we throw together a quick computer simulation of what remain's of the Earth's Living Ecosystem. Test it out, and merge it into the Equation with the weather and the robot simulations. What's left? Seismic activity? I guess our simulation ought to be aware of meteors from space too in order to be smarter than the robots.

Once we have integrated all possible variables and factors into our great computer simulation of the Equation for Calculating Everything, we add a few exobytes of RAM, and start crunching out information. What will this robot eat for breakfast in 4 days, and what time will it eat it? Will that robot meet a life mate next month? Who will win the robots' next presidential election?

To further improve accuracy and visiblity further into the future, we can refine our simulations by breaking "independent autonomous systems" down into their actual specific components. The more detail our simulation takes into account, the higher resolution the image it produces of the future will be. For example, if we actually modeled every individual molecule in a weather system, we would have a substantially more accurate and long-term vision of the weather pattern's future. Today's models look at overall molecular composition (and temperature, pressure, trajectory, etc.) of weather systems, and as such lose accuracy the further out you extrapolate them.

The point is that all of these things are theoretically predicatable. That is, they are pre-determined. To make this point, I also like to think of comets in space. Comets travel our solar system (and probably many others) on paths that are defined perfectly by concise laws of physics. It is possible, and even relatively simple to predict a comet's exact position in space at any given point in time given knowledge about its current position and trajectory. If we get this information for lots of comets, and planets, and moons, we can start to predict impacts and observe craters being formed. Many were awestruck, but few surprised when the Shoemaker-Levy comet struck Jupiter in 1994 because such events are relatively easy to predict with existing technology.

In fact, the same principles apply on a much smaller scale too. Robots do not even have to take over the world for this to be the case. Even human behavior is predetermined and predictable given the right information and computer models. What we say and do is driven by neuro-psychological reactions to what we perceive happening in the world around us, or in response to activity within our own brains. It would be much easier to comprehensively simulate the robots' artificial intelligence in our Equation only because that's already in the form of a computer program. Human behavior however could also be modeled in detail given enough information about individuals' brain anatomies and chemistries.

Do what you will with the implications of that. I have strong opinions on the subject, but will reserve those for another blog. I will end today with my own prediction that within 50 years, students will be taught the principle of predetermination in high school science class alongside the likes of molecular biology, evolution, neurology, and quantum physics.

Serendipity Maybe

Has anything ever happened to you where for a split second you thought your life was over, but then you realized it was really probably something wonderful for you after all?

That is exactly what I experienced today when I read a press release from Trossen Robotics about a new line of robotic products they are releasing.

"OMGWTF!!! I am like 2 months away from launching this revolutionary product line that will change the world as we know it, and those sons-of-mother-#*@&3Rs beat me to it!"

You did not want to be around me from about 2:00 - 2:30 this afternoon. I was ruined. What could I do? Should I still bother to launch the products I have poured years and nearly one hundred thousand dollars into? Maybe I should just write it all off and join the Peace Corps. Clearly, they got to it before me. And naturally, I can't compete because they did it first and they must know what they're doing better than me.

Then I actually decided to look at their product. It really looks pretty cool. I kinda want one. So I decided to look at it a little more closely, and all of a sudden my life was no longer over. Their RobotBuilder kits are awesome in their own right, an excellent complement to my products, but are not in any way a direct substitute for any of mine.

In fact, not only am I not ruined by the news, I am thrilled to see a product so directly targeted to the same market as mine. Leading up to my own product launch, I have little doubt the products are excellent. My concern was whether a sufficient market existed for a robust robotic prototyping platform to make it financially worthwhile. While Trossen's press release may steal a smidge of my thunder, it gives me great confidence that I am not diving headfirst into completely uncharted territory.

When I calmed down and looked closely at the RobotBuilder brochure and product information, I noticed a few things. First, their brand messages "less time building, more time enjoying" and "we make robots easy and fun" are the same themes that resound in my own marketing materials. Second, their product featureset is defined similarly to mine, but their actual product is very different. Third, their prices are on the same scale as what I expect to charge.

These factors combined tell me that I am doing something right. My products are still revolutionary and without direct substitute on the current market, but the target market is now a little better defined. What's more, the market is reachable and likely to have its appetite whetted by the RobotBuilder product. Although we may wind up competing for holiday dollars later this year, the buzz Trossen has created can only help give my product launch more momentum.

Besides, I love trossen. I am a customer and a fan. Perhaps they will carry my robots in the future, and I can certainly envision more opportunities to partner with them than to compete with them regardless.

The Robots Are Coming!

Ready or not, the robots are coming. It is not probable but inevitable that robots will work their way into more and more facets of our lives in the years ahead, and I am excited to be a part of that evolution.

As the baby boomer generation ages and the elder care industry struggles with labor shortages and skyrocketing expenses, this will probably be the first area where robots become visible over the next five years. I expect the technology that is developed to meet the needs of caring for elderly in their homes and in assisted living facilities will lead to robotic maids that cook and clean for the younger population too. By 2020, I anticipate that at least 1 in 10 American households will have at least one domestic robot.

Historically, robots have been restricted to use on automotive and similar assembly lines, or somewhat more glamorous appearances in science fiction. But today the technology is available for much more sophisticated real-life human-interfacing robots. It is the industry that has fallen behind in packaging the technology into really useful robotic solutions. I view this as a tremendous business opportunity and am excited to announce my commitment to serving this need.

As an engineer with a naturally curious mind, I set out to build a robot of my own. I was surprised at first to find this challenge as difficult as it was because off-the-shelf parts don't quite fit easily together for a robust robotic prototyping platform yet. Therefore, I have decided to start my efforts there.

Now I have assembled a superstar team of designers and engineers to create a line of robotic modules that all fit together super easily for an extremely versatile robotic prototyping platform. I have just seen the first prototypes for products that we will be launching for all robotic enthusiasts in the months ahead, and I am very excited about what I see.

Sorry I cannot say much more about the products just yet. However, I can say that I am designing the products for people and businesses who are interested in developing their own sophisticated robots. In particular, I hope the products will appeal to people familiar with JAVA programming.

Participate in My Market Research Panel

If you are a robotics enthusiast or a java engineer, I would love to hear from you. I am now forming a market research panel to provide input on the products and help make sure they best meet your needs. Participants in the panel may receive free merchandise, sneak peeks of products before they are released, discounts on purchases, and have a direct impact on determining which features are included in our new products.

If you are interested in participating in our market research panel, please email info at arovotech d0t com with "Market Research Panel" in the subject line for more information.